Tuesday, 27 November 2007

A 68% return on one match

Wow what a result that was! Tonight I traded the Man United v Sporting Lisbon match on the under 2.5 goal market and the under 3.5 goal market and got a return of 68% depending on how you look at it. The unfortunate thing is that it is all a paper profit. I was talking to a friend on MSN messenger about my trading and as he is a big United fan I thought I would talk him through my 'trading' on the match. Here is what I did, I am saying I use £100 stakes and welcome comments as to what people think:

I started the match off with a back of under 2.5 goals for £100 at 1.87 at 19.48
I then laid £25 at 1.72 at 19.52
Then laid the other £75 and greened up for an all round profit of £9.50 at 19.59 as I had to go for my dinner
Just before I got back a goal was scored and when I sat back down you could back at 2.4 for £100 at 20.15
Next move was to lay of £25 at 2.04 and greened it up to give now a profit of about £13 at 20.26
Then lay another £25 at 1.97 and greened it for another £5.45 profit at 20.28
This now meant I had a profit of £19 and still £50 in the market at 2.4
Next was a further £25 lay at 1.82 for an £8 profit green at 20.32
Then laid £25 at 1.78 for another £8.70 green at 20.35 just before half time to give an all green position of £36.70

In to the second half and I started with a back of unders at 1.78 at 20.52 for £100
At 20.57 with United pressure I thought it best to get out at 1.76 for a £1.14 green
At 20.58 it looked like a price drop was about to occur so I got in for £100 at 1.72
At 20.59 a lay of £25 at 1.62 for £1.55 green
21.03 another lay of £25 at 1.54 for a further £2.92 green to bring total green to £42.31

Then in went the goal making it 1-1 and £50 still on under 2.5 goals and therefore a potential loss of £7.69 if a further goal was scored.
I immediately went into the under 3.5 goal market and backed unders at 1.37 for £100 at 21.08, the price then went out to 1.42 and might have even gone to 1.44.
At 21.23 I laid the £50 in the under 2.5 goal market at 1.72 to give an all green position of £42.31 in that market.
At 21.24 Lay £50 at 1.08 and green it for £13.43 with £50 still on the unders
At 21.29 Lay the last £50 at 1.02 for another £17.16 and put the £42.31 profit in the under 2.5 goal market on under 2.5 goals at 1.48
At 21.31 I put the £30.90 profit in the under 3.5 goal market on unders at 1.03
At 21.35 I laid £20 at 1.2 in the under 2.5 goal market
Then just before the free kick which led to a goal I laid a further £10 greening it at 1.16 leaving £12.31 on unders.

In went the goal and left me with a profit on the match of around £68

Each time I laid an amount I meant to have said that I greened it out but forgot to write it a few times. Not sure what people think to the above, hopefully you can understand it all. I have copied the times from my MSN conversation so they may be little bit out but I tried to keep it accurate as to what I said I would have done.

I would love to hear what people think to this approach and any recommendations etc.

1 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi there. I've been a soccer trader for a while, so I realize what you says.

In my humble opinion, Under 2.5 goals market is the best for trading. In my own strategy, I usually back Unders 5 mins to the kick off and then lay it in the 3-4 mins to generate a profit of 2-3%. Then I concentrate on the match and would do the same, i.e. backing the unders and laying it in at most 1 or 2 mins to generate 2-3 percent of my bank.

Good luck.